INTRODUCTION

“Cheap” is meaningless if the machine arrives without a pump or the HS code attracts 35 % anti-dumping duty. This article therefore defines “cheapest” as the country that delivers a landed, compliant, ready-to-work 20-ton crawler excavator at the lowest 5-year total cost of ownership (TCO). All cash flows are converted to USD FOB-equivalent and discounted at 7 % WACC. Data are taken from 2025 spot quotes, port tariffs and insurance tables collected between 01-Jan-2025 and 30-Aug-2025 .

Methodology—How We Rank “Cheap”

We simulate a 22-ton CAT 320D2 (or Komatsu PC200-8) with 4 000–6 000 h—still Tier-3/Stage-IIIA, no DEF tank, common in resale fleets. Cost buckets:

A. FOB equipment price (yard, washed, no attachments)

B. Export clearance & documentation

C. Ocean freight to Houston (US), Felixstowe (EU), or Lagos (Africa)

D. Marine insurance (ICC-A, 0.35 %)

E. Import duty & VAT / GST

F. Port THC & customs broker

G. Quay-to-yard haul (≤500 km)

H. Risk-adjusted scam premium (expected loss = fraud probability × average loss)

I. 5-year parts & downtime delta vs. domestic used machine (NPV)

Only countries that can supply ≥500 verified units/year are modelled: Japan, South Korea, China, Germany, Netherlands, UAE, USA (domestic baseline).

Reference Machine Specification

Model: CAT 320D2, 2014, 22 000 kg, 4 800 h, standard boom 5.7 m, stick 2.9 m

Residual value after 5 yr / 8 000 h: 38 % of purchase price (EquipmentWatch 2025 curve)

Benchmark TCO (USA domestic): $185 k purchase + $67 k operating = $252 k NPV

Cost Bucket Deep-Dive by Country

3.1 Japan – “Low-Risk, High Quality”

A. FOB price (Nagoya yard)………………………… $88 k

B. Export docs (Shaken extract, radiation cert)…… $600

C. Ocean freight to Houston (20 HC Flat-rack)…… $4 200

D. Insurance (0.35 % of CIF)………………………… $330

E. US duty (free, HS 8429.52)………………………… $0

F. THC & broker (Houston)…………………………… $1 100

G. Haul to Dallas (400 km)…………………………… $900

H. Risk premium (fraud = 0.5 %)………………… $440

I. Parts NPV delta (OEM parts -5 % vs. US)…… –$3 k

Landed cost……………………………………………… $92.6 k

5-year TCO……………………………………………… $92.6 k + $64 k = $156.6 k

TCO vs. US baseline………………………………… –37.9 %

Japan is the lowest-risk origin; only 0.5 % fraud probability and 2-day parts delay through Mitsui or Itochu channels .

3.2 South Korea – “Mid-Cost, Fast Ship”

A. FOB (Busan)…………………………………………… $82 k

B. Export docs……………………………………………… $450

C. Freight to Houston…………………………………… $3 900

D. Insurance………………………………………………… $305

E. Duty………………………………………………………… $0

F. THC & broker…………………………………………… $1 100

G. Haul………………………………………………………… $900

H. Risk premium (fraud = 1 %)…………………… $820

I. Parts delta (–3 %)…………………………………… –$2 k

Landed……………………………………………………… $88.5 k

5-yr TCO………………………………………………… $88.5 k + $65 k = $153.5 k (–39.1 %)

Korea is cheaper than Japan by $3.1 k landed, but parts pipelines are shorter (1-day air from Seoul to LAX), so downtime cost is almost identical.

3.3 China – “Lowest FOB, Highest Variance”

We model three quality tiers because China’s variance dominates cost.

Tier-1: OEM-certified used (Komatsu ReMarketing, SANY Premium)

A. FOB (Shanghai)……………………………………… $68 k

B. Export docs……………………………………………… $350

C. Freight to Houston…………………………………… $3 600

D. Insurance………………………………………………… $255

E. Duty………………………………………………………… $0

F. THC & broker…………………………………………… $1 100

G. Haul………………………………………………………… $900

H. Risk premium (fraud = 4 %)………………… $2 720

I. Parts delta (+8 % OEM vs. US)………………… +$5 k

Landed……………………………………………………… $76.9 k

5-yr TCO………………………………………………… $76.9 k + $70 k = $146.9 k (–41.7 %)

Tier-2: Independent large yard (50+ units, SGS audit)

A. FOB………………………………………………………… $58 k

H. Risk premium (fraud = 8 %)………………… $4 640

I. Parts delta (+15 % non-OEM)………………… +$10 k

Landed……………………………………………………… $67.3 k

5-yr TCO………………………………………………… $67.3 k + $76 k = $143.3 k (–43.1 %)

Tier-3: Small trader / “Facebook ad”

A. FOB………………………………………………………… $45 k (looks irresistible)

H. Risk premium (fraud = 22 %)……………… $9 900

I. Parts delta (+25 % + 3-week downtime)… +$18 k

Landed……………………………………………………… $57.6 k

5-yr TCO………………………………………………… $57.6 k + $85 k = $142.6 k (–43.4 %)

Note: Tier-3 median outcome; 22 % chance you lose the entire $45 k plus legal fees. Expected value is worse than Tier-1 when risk-adjusted.

3.4 Germany – “High Price, Euro Tax Refund”

A. FOB (Cologne)………………………………………… $105 k

B. Export docs + VAT reclaim agent……………… $1 200

C. Freight to Houston…………………………………… $3 300

D. Insurance………………………………………………… $385

E. Duty………………………………………………………… $0

F. THC & broker…………………………………………… $1 100

G. Haul………………………………………………………… $900

H. Risk premium (fraud = 0.8 %)………………… $840

I. Parts delta (–2 %)…………………………………… –$1.5 k

Landed……………………………………………………… $111.2 k

5-yr TCO………………………………………………… $111.2 k + $66 k = $177.2 k (–29.7 %)

Germany offers CE conformity and Stage-IIIA emissions records—useful for EU buyers, but not the cheapest for US or Africa.

3.5 Netherlands – “Rotterdam Hub, Slight Discount”

A. FOB………………………………………………………… $102 k

Landed……………………………………………………… $108.1 k (similar to Germany)

3.6 UAE – “Desert Hours, Sandblast Risk”

A. FOB (Dubai)…………………………………………… $72 k

C. Freight to Lagos (closer)………………………… $2 800

E. Nigerian duty (5 %)………………………………… $3 740

H. Risk premium (fraud = 6 % + hour-creep) $4 320

I. Parts delta (+10 % + undercarriage re-build) +$12 k

Landed Lagos…………………………………………… $88.8 k

5-yr TCO………………………………………………… $88.8 k + $78 k = $166.8 k (–33.8 %)

UAE machines often come from Saudi mega-projects with high ambient hours and sand-blasted paint; inspect undercarriage carefully.

3.7 USA (Domestic Baseline)

A. Dealer wholesale…………………………………… $145 k

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